CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2021-10-29T12:07:28Z
## Message ID: 20211029-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20211028-AL-010).  Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME has little or no impact on Juno or Dawn.

Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A and STEREO B.  The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2021-10-30T06:54Z, Solar Orbiter at 2021-10-30T07:07Z, STEREO A at 2021-10-30T23:44Z and STEREO B at 2021-10-30T20:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

Previous simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2021-10-30T16:54Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).

CME parameters are (O-type):

Start time of the event: 2021-10-28T15:53Z.

Estimated speed: ~1109 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 0/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: O-type CME 2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001 and S-type CME 2021-10-28T01:23:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211028_125900_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Dawn_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.0 flare with ID 2021-10-28T15:17:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-10-28T15:35Z (see notifications 20211028-AL-001, 20211028-AL-002), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2021-10-28T16:16:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-003, 20211028-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-10-28T16:35:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-004, 20211028-AL-005, 20211028-AL-007), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2021-10-28T17:40:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20211028-AL-008, 20211028-AL-009), and SEP at MODEL with ID 2021-10-28T18:28:00-SEP-001.

This CME was simulated with an earlier, S-type, CME (2021-10-28T01:23:00-CME-001) detected by STEREO A at 2021-10-28T01:23Z and associated with a C1.1 flare with ID 2021-10-27T21:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2021-10-27T21:59Z.

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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